Investigation Summary
Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport is leading the Annex 13 investigation. Its preliminary report of 4 February 2025 records that both GPS signals were lost from 04:26 UTC and the crew flew two missed approaches at Grozny. At 05:13:31 UTC the CVR recorded an external bang; hydraulic system 3 fell to 0 PSI at 05:13:34, system 1 at 05:13:47 and system 2 to 4 PSI at 05:13:54, and the cabin depressurised at 05:13:39. The flight controls remained fixed in neutral, leaving the crew to fly the aircraft on thrust levers for about 75 minutes across the Caspian Sea. At 05:52 the crew hypothesised that an oxygen cylinder had exploded; that hypothesis was later tested and not supported, and no explosive traces were found. The Mayday and the report that only the thrust levers remained were transmitted between 06:03:25 and 06:03:44 UTC, and the aircraft struck the ground at 06:28 UTC roughly 5 km northwest of the runway 11 threshold at Aktau. The wreckage shows numerous through and non-through damage to the tail, vertical stabiliser, elevator, rudder, left engine and left wing, some of it of regular rectangular shape. An interim statement on 25 December 2025 said the damage was "presumably caused by the impact of warhead elements" without establishing their origin. Of the 67 on board, 38 died, including three of the five crew, and 29 survived.
Final Conclusions
There is no final report. The preliminary report was published on 4 February 2025 and an interim statement followed on 25 December 2025, which described the damage as "presumably caused by the impact of warhead elements", found no explosive traces and ruled out an oxygen-cylinder explosion, while not establishing the origin of the damage. Statements about Russian air defences and Ukrainian drone activity are government and media claims, not investigation findings.
Video Analysis
What We Know So Far | Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 — A preliminary look at the crash of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer E190 that went down near Aktau, Kazakhstan on Christmas Day 2024, after the crew reported control issues.
If playback is blocked, the owner has disabled embedding — use the link above.
Systems & Failure Modes
Hydraulic Systems 1, 2, and 3
The E190 features three independent hydraulic systems. The FDR recorded a sequential drop to 0% fluid level in all three systems, starting with System 3, which rendered the primary flight control surfaces (ailerons and elevators) inoperative.
Differential Thrust Maneuvering
Following the total hydraulic failure, the crew attempted to control the aircraft's pitch and bank using the thrust levers of the two GE CF34-10E engines, a technique used when primary flight controls are lost.
Oxygen System
The crew reported a suspected oxygen cylinder explosion in the cabin. Investigators are examining if a cylinder failure or external impact caused the rapid decompression and subsequent hydraulic lines severance.
Interesting Facts
- 01Hydraulic systems 3, 1 and 2 lost pressure within 23 seconds, at 05:13:34, 05:13:47 and 05:13:54 UTC.
- 02Both GPS signals were lost from 04:26 UTC and the crew flew two missed approaches at Grozny; the cabin depressurised at 05:13:39.
- 03With the flight controls fixed in neutral the crew flew for about 75 minutes on thrust levers alone.
- 04The aircraft crashed at 06:28 UTC about 5 km northwest of the runway 11 threshold at Aktau, not short of the runway.
- 05The wreckage shows numerous through and non-through damage to the tail, vertical stabiliser, elevator, rudder, left engine and left wing, some of regular rectangular shape.
- 06The crew's in-flight oxygen-cylinder hypothesis was later tested and not supported.
- 0738 of the 67 on board died, including three of the five crew; 29 survived.
Safety Actions & Advisories
Preliminary report, 4 February 2025
Source ↗Kazakhstan's Ministry of Transport published the preliminary report, containing the recorded sequence but no cause.
Interim statement, 25 December 2025
Source ↗The investigation reported damage presumably caused by warhead elements of unestablished origin, no explosive traces and no oxygen-cylinder explosion.
Known Controversies & Unanswered Questions
Attribution of the damage
Reference ↗Kazakhstan's interim statement of 25 December 2025 described the damage as "presumably caused by the impact of warhead elements" but did not establish where they came from. Attribution to Russian air defences responding to a Ukrainian drone incursion comes from governments and media, not from the investigation. President Putin acknowledged the role of Russian air defences on 9 October 2025, and on 15 April 2026 Russia and Azerbaijan settled the matter, describing it as the "unintentional action" of an air-defence system.
Location
APPROXIMATE AREA ONLY · This position predates coordinate provenance tracking. Treat it as an approximate marker for the area, not the accident site. No map is shown, because a marker here would imply a precision the record does not have.
Reported location: Near Aktau, Kazakhstan