Investigation Summary
The flight departed Runway 13/31 at 18:58 local time, just one minute after sunset, amidst overcast skies and snow. Weather conditions at the time included a visibility of 5 km and a northwesterly wind from 290 degrees at 5 m/s. Shortly after reaching 100 meters, the Yak-40 began a steep descent. It first struck the ground 1,457 meters from the runway end and 53 meters to the left of the centerline. The aircraft bounced, traveled another 50 meters, and then crashed again, resulting in an explosion and total destruction of the airframe. The debris field was scattered over an area measuring 220 by 53 meters. Initial theories suggested the aircraft might have been struck by ground fire due to a hole found in the cockpit windshield, but forensic analysis determined the damage was a result of the impact with the terrain. The investigation was severely hampered by a lack of objective flight data, as the aircraft was not equipped with recorders that survived or provided usable information for the final climb phase. The only physical clue was the position of the horizontal stabilizer, which was found at a +1 to +1.2 degree setting, corresponding to a nose-down command. Investigators could not determine if this was a mechanical failure or a manual input by the crew during a period of high workload.
Final Conclusions
The official commission was unable to establish a definitive cause for the crash due to a lack of objective data. The investigation concluded with two primary hypotheses: a spontaneous spontaneous deflection of the stabilizer to a nose-down position during the retraction of gear and flaps, which the crew failed to correct in time, or a sudden violation of the pilots' psychophysiological functions (incapacitation or disorientation) that led to a loss of control.
Photographic Evidence (1)
Video Analysis
No video analysis linked for this case file yet.
Airframe & Maintenance
Systems & Failure Modes
Horizontal Stabilizer
The stabilizer was found in a nose-down position, leading to the hypothesis of a spontaneous uncommanded deflection during the climb.
Cockpit Windshield
A hole in the left side of the windshield was initially suspected to be from ground fire, but was later confirmed to be impact damage.
Interesting Facts
- 01The aircraft was less than two years old at the time of the accident.
- 02Among the 29 passengers were 11 players, a coach, and a referee from the Kyzylorda Region women's basketball team.
- 03The horizontal stabilizer was found in a nose-down position (+1 to +1.2 degrees).
- 04No traces of explosives or evidence of an in-flight fire were found during the technical investigation.
- 05The crash occurred just one minute after local sunset in snowy conditions.